Thursday, May 27, 2010

China Telecom aims at large scale deployment of 100G on 2014

5/27/2010, Optinet, one of the most important technology forum about optical network industry in China, is held on May in Beijing each year. Every year on Optinet, you can always here about some very interesting and very important technological point of view from those technology gurus from China's service providers. Every year, the topic of Optinet is always the hottest optical network technology that year. And in this year's Optinet, It is 100G technology.

On yesterday's open speech of Optinet 2010, Vice chief engineer of China Telecom, Mr. Zhang,chengliang gave a time table on 100G deployment of China Telecom for the first time. According to Zhang, they will first test 100G WDM equipments from different suppliers in their labs, then they will make field trial in 2013. He predicated they would launch large scale deployment in 2014. Zhang admitted that 40G technology would not support the traffic request after year 2014. Every 5 year, China Telecom's network traffic increases by 8 times. Zhang also praised that 100G technology is a revolutionary technology for optical communication. The DSP, new modulation and coherent receiving technology all will make optical communication up one level. In his point of view, 100G technology will have longer life span, and can be used at least to year 2020.

Another keynote speaker yesterday was Mr. Mao qian, director of optical communication sub-committee of China telecommunication committee. His speech was about FTTH and M2M network. According to him, China has already had 20 million FTTx subscribers, which exceeds Japan's scale. But among those FTTx subscribers, very few of them are FTTH subscribers. In the future, the coming triple play policy will further promote China's FTTx development. And for the future Mache to Machine (M2M) application in home, FTTH will be the only choice to connect this home M2M network to Internet.

China Mobile opens tender for PTN equipments

5/27/2010, Beijing, China Mobile has just opened tender for purchasing packet metro transmission network equipments (PTN) for year 2010. The total value is estimated to be over 5billion Chinese Yuan.

According to China Mobile, they will invite bid for PTN and IPRAN (IP Radio Access Network)equipments. The qualified bidders must be the equipment manufactures themselves or their first degree distributors. All their equipments must have passed the certification of China Mobile's Lab. The deadline for purchasing the bidding document is May 31,2010.

"China Mobile has invested 3billion RMB on PTN in year 2009. We have deployed PTN in large scale in Zhejiang province, and there are several trial networks in Guangdong, Jiangsu etc. We are also the first to realize 1588V2 synchronizing around the world. " Mr. Xu,rong, senior researcher of China Mobile's research institute said. He also said there still is the margin for PTN manufactures to reduce price because of the large market request and competition.

In year 2009's PTN tender of China Mobile, Huawei, ZTE, Fiberhome, Alcatel Shanghai Bell, Erission, Nokia Siemens all shared the 3billion RMB market, Huawei and ZTE each has 35% market share.

Besides PTN, China Mobile also decided to reinforce their fixed line broadband network by adding 6million lines this year. According to local media, China Mobile already deployed 3million access lines in the first quarter of 2010.

For China Mobile's competitors, fixed line broadband business is a useful tool to compete with China Mobile. Both China Telecom and China Unicom have used combined fixed line broadband and cell phone services to attract new subscribers. This is attractive especially for enterprise customers. Because of this, China Mobile has realized that fixed line broadband business is a very important arm for their total business.

POF is not TD-SCDMA

5/25/2010, A POF forum organized by a state-hold telecom media was held in Beijing yesterday.Hundrads of represents from POF related products manufactures, service providers,universities and research institutes attended the forum.

Two things from this forum should be noticed. The first is that the forum showed that China already has a integrated POF industry. About 6 or 7 years ago, China only had several POF fiber manufactures. But today, there are more POF fiber suppliers, China has her own POF manufacturing technology, there are more POF related components and equipments manufactures. A Xi'an company showed her full line 650nm POF transmisstion system on the forum. The POF manufacture, Dasheng also has her own POF LAN solution which was deployed in several trial networks.

The other important thing from this forum is that China's service providers began to recognize this technology, although they think that it is still not mature. Both China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile have repesentives in the forum. Although they showed some interests on POF, but we can also see that they know little about this technology. They have no interest to deploy POF in the short future.

Somebody suggested that government should take the responsibility on deploying more POF trial networks, government should promote the standard making on POF. Of course, it is a very good suggestion, and the only possible solution that POF can have a good future in China. Repensitive from China Telecom has explained clearly on the forum, "They can not deploy POF while losing money. "

In China's telecom industry, government once interfered in the promotion of TD-SCDMA standard, and really got very good achivements. But TD-SCDMA is developed by some state hold big companies. In POF field, none of the players has government background. POF is not TD-SCDMA, we still can not see a clear future on China's POF market.

What Chinese talk in Telecom BBS : Inside exchange of ZTE

5/16/2010, It is the time to publish financial reports. It is the time to doubt those financial data. A lead on C114 named “comparison of financial data between ZTE and Huawei” compared the number of employees, revenue, cost, net income, margin of net income etc in both companies. From that he found that ZTE’s cost profit ratio is only one thirds of Huawei’s. In year 2009, ZTE has a cost profit ratio of 8.18%, Huawei is 23.37%. In year 2008, ZTE is 7.67%, Huawei is 21.46%. For the profit margin, ZTE is 5.52% in year 2009, Huawei is 14.12%. In year 2008, ZTE is 5.11%, Huawei is 12.94%. For gross fit margin, ZTE is also lower than Huawei. The author’s conclusion is that ZTE transferred benefits to high ranked managers using series of inside exchanges.
People are also talking about Huawei and ZTE’s struggle in India. On one side they praise their policy more mature than before, but on the other side, they remind the two companies not to lose their respect in the process of earning money.
On C114, there is a lead about who is the leader in China’s PON market. He concludes that Huawei and Alcatel lead in GPON market, ZTE leads in EPON market, Fiberhome does well both in GPON and EPON in China’s market, but do a poor job in overseas market.
In China, Huawei’s employee is often admired by their high income. On Sohu, a lead named “Several 5 years Huawei employee prepared to buy cars for their wives using their bonus”. The lead said that Huawei’s 2009 year bonus tripled compared to last year. Somebody doesn’t believe the truth of this lead, somebody criticized that the bonus is in exchange of those employee’s health. Facing criticism to Huawei’s HR policy, a lead on Tianya supports Huawei. “As a new employee in Huawei this year, he believes that Huawei does a good job both in salary standard, social guarantee, and transparency of organization. He suggests all new employees in Huawei shouldn’t eye too high, but need to do more solid jobs.”
There are also criticisms on service providers. On Tencent, a so-called Tietong (China Railcom) employee wrote that a inside document of China Mobile shows that they will only finish the merge with Tietong if case of Tietong can earn money. According to government’s policy, China Mobile should merged with Tietong. This was thought a good thing for many employees of the struggled fixed line carrier of the former China Rail ministry. A blog on Sina also criticized China Mobile by misleading subscribers. According to the blog, the 400 “free” consulting service of China Mobile is not free, China Mobile will charge users every time they use it. The free service is only for the consultant service, not for the basic calling charge. The author thinks that it is a misleading behavior, China Mobile must apologize to their users.

China Govt encourages private investment to enter basic telecom

5/13/200, China's central government today released guidelines on further encouraging private investment in a wider range of key industries including telecom industry, a move indicating the authorities are placing more importance in private investment's role in sustaining economic growth.

The State Council published the guidelines stating that the Chinese government will make efforts to create "a fair and transparent environment" for private investment and "enlarge the scope for entry of private investment". The government will encourage private investment to enter infrastructure sectors including transportation, water, oil, natural gas, power, mining and telecommunications, according to the statement. And private investment is also encouraged to flow into public utilities, social utilities, financial services, commerce and trade and defense.

In these guidelines, the section 2.9 is about telecom industry. It writes:” Government encourages private investment to take part in the telecommunication construction, encourages private sector to enters basic telecom service providing market by buying shares of state-hold service providers, supports private sector to develop value-added services, strengthen the monitoring and controlling of monopoly and unsuitable competition behavior in telecom industry, promotes fair competition and sharing of the resources. "

By the end of 2008, private enterprises had 8 percent market shares of China's telecommunications industry. The most famous private enterprise who develops basic telecom service in mainland China is Tailong telecom in Chengdu, Sichuan province. Retired from the position of high-ranked manager of Chengdu Telecom, Mr. Zhang,xianqing founded Tailong (www.tlw.cn) in year 1998. The main business of the company is to provide broadband and phone service based on their own access network. On the market, Tailong often plays a role that helps weaker service providers like Railcom or Unicom against Chengdu Telecom. Through cooperation with some real estate developers and local government, Tailong finds a niche market in several cities under the menace of telecom service providers and unclear policy environment. Tailong is one of the first FTTH service providers in mainland China. In year 2005, Tailong became the first customer of Amedia in China. Last year, they also deployed the Ethernet point to point FTTH equipments from Firstmile of Shenzhen.

Since day one, China Telecom never stops to criticize Tailong as a bad competitor. Although medias always take Tailong as an example against state-hold carriers’ monopoly, the business for Tailong is always difficult. For private company like Tailong, it seems government doesn’t like them to be in the telecom industry.

"The guidelines signal that the Chinese government is attaching greater importance to private investment as the nation has realized it will have to rely more on the private enterprises to maintain sustainable economic growth, rather than State-owned enterprises," said Li Xiaogang, director of the Foreign Investment Research Center at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

But "I am more concerned about detailed measures on how to implement the guidelines. I really hope the guidelines are not merely empty words".

If you want to know if the guidelines are empty words or not, just look at Tailong's development in the coming years.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Former China Telecom CTO criticizes China's broadband strategy

5/13/2010, The most important technology guru in China's telecom industry, former CTO and current director of science and technology committee of China Telecom, Mr. Wei leping today addressed attendees of "2010 Global broadband communication and M2M forum" on several important technology and marketing topic of China's telecom industry in Beijing.

In his speech, he even criticized that China's government doesn't have a 21 century strategy for lack of national FTTH plan.

According China Telecom's traffic data, Wei predicated that the annual growth rate for internet traffic in China Telecom's network will be 50%-80% in future 5 years, that means the traffic of 5 years later will be 10 or 20 times higher than today's traffic. Today, 70% of the internet traffic comes from P2P application, but because of China Telecom's regulation policy, 65% of these P2P traffic is UDP traffic.

For Telecom service provider's service carrying network, Wei pointed out that core router's low MTBF is a key bottle neck of today's telecom infrastructure. The long term solution for this should be the optical router, and the middle term solution is to bypass the traffic by transport layer.

For technology selection in metro network, Wei said there is still big obstacle between datacom engineers and telecom engineers. These two kinds of engineers have different "religion", one is Christian, the other is Buddhism, and they can't merge together. Just because of this, we can't say there is a main stream metro network technology; every selection should be decided case by case.

For China's access network construction, Wei said that cost of PON end to end equipment has dropped to below 100 USD according to this March's bidding process. This 100 USD is a threshold for large scale roll-out. Both ONU and OLT's price have dropped more than 25% during the past 3 years. It is the time for China Telecom to forge ahead FTTH in big cities. Considering upgrading cost, FTTH has nearly the same cost with FTTB+LAN. In year 2010, China Telecom will have 0.5-1 million FTTH subscribers. As GPON and EPON, Wei doesn't prefer any of the two technology, he only said that both them are mature technology selection now.

Wei didn't talk much about IPTV today. He said that voice service still is the most profitable service based on the standard of price per bit compared to internet and video service. Especially China's video service is very cheap. For future's large scale video service, China Telecom must continue to find way to cut cost off.

The most important thing Wei talked about today is about China's broadband strategy. Wei said he once made a speech before China's premier minister Wen jiabao. In that speech he said the most important infrastructure construction should be information highway, not Industry Park, port, highway or airport. This is the research result of a Japanese high level group. But in mainland China, no money was invested into information industry. No new policy was introduced to promote this industry. This shows that China's government still has 20 century's developing strategy, not 21 century's. He said premier Wen thanked him for that speech. That is the reason why government began to promote triple play. But according to Wei, that is not enough, compared to US or Japan's government, China's government still has a lot to do on developing information industry.

What Chinese talk in Telecom BBS: Huawei's crisis

5/13/2010, Huawei and ZTE are always the center of many leads on telecom BBS in China. According to NETEASE,Huawei faced spy gate scandal in Egypt. It was said that a Huawei employee stole NSN's bid information in Egypt and then Egypt Telecom banned to purchase all Huawei's equipments. In order to recover customer's confidence, Huawei has replaced all Egypt team. The company didn't authorize this rumor.

On Tianya, there is a lead named "The growth road for neophytes in Huawei in the first 4 years". According to the lead, the 3rd year is a key to decide if this neophyte can have future in Huawei. Some followers think the analyse in this lead is reasonable. Some said that even a Huawei's employee can't afford the high price of house of today's China.

On C114, a self-claimed Huawei employee summarized 3 big crisis of Huawei. The 1st, Many managing problems include process support, product quality, service ability, will erupt after developing speed slows down. The 2nd, internal power struggle will become more serious in the future. These struggle includes between employees and company, between new employees and old employees, between employees and managers etc. The last, the problem of pending successor of Huawei. The author pointed out that all these 3 crises will lead to out of control of management, decrease of innovation ability, lost of talented employees etc.

About ZTE, there is also a lead on Tianya, "The internationalization of ZTE,a Waterloo after spring chill”. The author also claimed himself a ZTE employee. From his analyses, ZTE faces many problems like slow market feedback, shortage of strategy, unstable employee team, possible corruption etc. The author hopes ZTE can be healthy into her 30 years.

There are also some leads about China's carriers. On Tencent, a netizen wrote: "The national working models of China Mobile are humiliating 400K her workers." The reason of the anger of this author comes from that none of all those 13 working models of China Mobile is a common worker.

On C114, a netizen criticized carriers' broadband propaganda. According to some news report, Guangdong Telecom will upgrade all residential broadband bandwidth from 2Mbps to 4Mbps from May 17, the International Telecom day. The netizens on C114 don't believe carriers' claim. some netizens said their so called 2M bandwidth is less than 1Mbps in fact.

China Govt encourages private investment to enter basic telecom

5/13/200, China's central government today released guidelines on further encouraging private investment in a wider range of key industries including telecom industry, a move indicating the authorities are placing more importance in private investment's role in sustaining economic growth.

The State Council published the guidelines stating that the Chinese government will make efforts to create "a fair and transparent environment" for private investment and "enlarge the scope for entry of private investment". The government will encourage private investment to enter infrastructure sectors including transportation, water, oil, natural gas, power, mining and telecommunications, according to the statement. And private investment is also encouraged to flow into public utilities, social utilities, financial services, commerce and trade and defense.

In these guidelines, the section 2.9 is about telecom industry. It writes:” Government encourages private investment to take part in the telecommunication construction, encourages private sector to enters basic telecom service providing market by buying shares of state-hold service providers, supports private sector to develop value-added services, strengthen the monitoring and controlling of monopoly and unsuitable competition behavior in telecom industry, promotes fair competition and sharing of the resources. "

By the end of 2008, private enterprises had 8 percent market shares of China's telecommunications industry. The most famous private enterprise who develops basic telecom service in mainland China is Tailong telecom in Chengdu, Sichuan province. Retired from the position of high-ranked manager of Chengdu Telecom, Mr. Zhang,xianqing founded Tailong (www.tlw.cn) in year 1998. The main business of the company is to provide broadband and phone service based on their own access network. On the market, Tailong often plays a role that helps weaker service providers like Railcom or Unicom against Chengdu Telecom. Through cooperation with some real estate developers and local government, Tailong finds a niche market in several cities under the menace of telecom service providers and unclear policy environment. Tailong is one of the first FTTH service providers in mainland China. In year 2005, Tailong became the first customer of Amedia in China. Last year, they also deployed the Ethernet point to point FTTH equipments from Firstmile of Shenzhen.

Since day one, China Telecom never stops to criticize Tailong as a bad competitor. Although medias always take Tailong as an example against state-hold carriers’ monopoly, the business for Tailong is always difficult. For private company like Tailong, it seems government doesn’t like them to be in the telecom industry.

"The guidelines signal that the Chinese government is attaching greater importance to private investment as the nation has realized it will have to rely more on the private enterprises to maintain sustainable economic growth, rather than State-owned enterprises," said Li Xiaogang, director of the Foreign Investment Research Center at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

But "I am more concerned about detailed measures on how to implement the guidelines. I really hope the guidelines are not merely empty words".

If you want to know if the guidelines are empty words or not, just look at Tailong's development in the coming years.